From 2013 to 2019, civil aviation routes in China exhibited robust growth, with values steadily increasing from 2.88 thousand to 5.52 thousand. The sector achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ranging from 10.62% to 14.57%. However, post-2019, the trend saw significant disruptions, with only a slight increase in 2020 followed by notable declines in 2021 and 2022. By 2023, the count dropped to 3.47 thousand, marking a 16.74% year-on-year decrease and highlighting a negative 5-year CAGR of -6.86%.
Forecasts from 2024 onwards suggest a steep decline in civil aviation routes, anticipating a drop to 0.081 thousand by 2028. This indicates a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -50.68% and an overall reduction of 97.08% by 2028.
Future trends to watch include potential policies for revitalizing the aviation sector, advancements in alternative transportation technologies, and shifts in travel patterns due to demographic or economic changes. The impact of global events and environmental considerations on the aviation sector will also be crucial factors to monitor.
