Forecast: Prevalence of overweight (modeled estimate, % of children under 5) in China

In 2023, the prevalence of overweight children under 5 in China was recorded at approximately 9.2%. From 2024, a consistent increase is forecasted, rising from 9.5% in 2024 to 10.6% by 2028. Year-on-year, this indicates a steady increase of about 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points annually with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 3.5% over five years.

Future trends to watch for:

  • Increasing urbanization and lifestyle changes potentially continuing to drive higher prevalence rates.
  • Government and health policy interventions aimed at reducing childhood obesity may impact these trends.
  • Societal shifts towards healthier eating habits and physical activity could mitigate the forecasted rise.

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