Forecast: Primary Energy Supply in Nigeria

In 2023, the primary energy supply in Nigeria stood at 167.22 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). Examining the year-on-year variations, there were notable fluctuations over the past two years: the supply increased by 1.74% in 2022 and by 1.7% in 2023. Over the last five years, the supply experienced a consistent yet modest growth, reflected in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.37%, highlighting a steady upward trend.

Looking ahead, projections indicate continued growth in primary energy supply. The five-year forecast CAGR is 1.26%, with an expected overall increase of 6.45% by 2028. This suggests a sustained increase, albeit at a slightly reduced pace compared to historical growth rates.

Future trends to watch for:

• Increased investments in renewable energy sources may impact overall supply metrics.
• Government policies and international agreements could shift energy production and consumption patterns.
• Technological advancements in energy efficiency could alter the demand landscape.