From 2013 to 2015, the UK's lubricant transformation output showed a steady decline, with compound annual growth rate (CAGR) values reflecting a downward trend of -4.3% to -1.96%. The year 2017 saw a significant spike (+26.69%) which was an anomaly in an otherwise depreciating market. Post-2017, the production level dipped again notably in 2019 with a -32.65% year-on-year fall, reflecting the overall declining trend. From 2020 to 2023, the market continued with a mixed but predominantly downward direction.
In 2023, the value stood at 263.55 Thousand Tonnes Of Oil Equivalent, marking a -6.41% decrease from the previous year, while the preceding five-year CAGR was -10.05%, signalling a steady downtrend. Future forecasts indicate this trend will persist, with a projected five-year CAGR of -7.05% and an overall decline of -30.62% by 2028.
Notable future trends to watch for include:
- Increased adoption of synthetic and renewable lubricants.
- Impact of regulatory changes aimed at reducing carbon emissions.
- Technological advancements in lubricant efficiency extending usage cycles.
