The forecast shows a gradual decline in new registrations for diesel lorries up to 3500 kg, including hybrids, in France from 2024 to 2028. The forecasted values are 307,270 in 2024, decreasing to 303,990 in 2028, marking a continuous downward trend. From historical data, in 2023, registrations were above the 2024 forecast, indicating a persistent decline in demand. The year-on-year percentage decrease is minimal, reflecting a steady preference shift away from diesel vehicles. Over the five-year forecast period, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) suggests a minor annual decline of around -0.22%.
Future trends to watch for include growing regulations favoring low-emission alternatives, technological advancements in electric lorries, and fluctuating consumer preferences which may further influence registrations. Sustainability initiatives could drastically reshape fleet compositions beyond the current modest reductions.
