The lignite gross heat production in Germany is experiencing a significant downward trend from 2024 to 2028, with a continuous decrease each year. In 2023, lignite production was notably higher, at nearly 19.25 thousand terajoules. The year-on-year decline between 2024 and 2025 is around 19.56%, followed by approximately 24.16% between 2025 and 2026, 31.37% from 2026 to 2027, and a substantial decline of 45.37% from 2027 to 2028. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over this period is negative, around -24.68%.

Future trends to watch for include:

Further declines in lignite production as Germany pursues its energy transition towards more sustainable sources.
Potential policy shifts that could accelerate or moderate these trends, particularly with respect to environmental regulations.
The role of technological advancements in energy efficiency and alternative energy sources adoption.