Forecast: Share of Renewable Electricity Generation in Sweden

The share of renewable electricity generation in Sweden has shown a positive trend from 2013 to 2023, starting at 54.03% in 2013 and reaching 67.15% by 2023. The period between 2013 and 2015 experienced significant growth, with a peak year-on-year increase of 13.3% in 2015. From 2016 onwards, the growth rate steadied, maintaining a consistent yet more modest increase. Notably, from 2018 to 2023, the yearly growth varied between 1.06% to 1.24%, indicating a stable upward trend with a five-year CAGR of 1.13% in 2023. This reflects a continual commitment to renewable energy but signifies a mature market with slower relative growth.

Looking ahead, forecasts from 2024 to 2028 suggest a continuing positive trajectory, with the share anticipated to rise to 70.46% by 2028. Despite the somewhat modest forecasted five-year CAGR of 0.76%, the cumulative five-year growth rate is expected to total 3.85%. This indicates that Sweden will likely continue to enhance its renewable energy capacity, albeit at a slower pace compared to previous decades.

Future trends to watch for include the potential impact of technological advancements in renewable energy efficiency and storage, governmental policies on carbon neutrality, and investment in new renewable projects. Additionally, evolving energy consumption patterns and global economic conditions could also influence the growth and sustainability of renewable electricity generation in Sweden.