Forecast: Number of Mobile Cellular Subscriptions in China

The number of mobile cellular subscriptions in China has shown a consistent upward trend from 2013 to 2023, growing from 89.32 to 127.8 subscriptions per hundred persons. A significant uptick was observed in 2017 and 2018 with year-on-year growth rates of 7.05% and 11.67% respectively, followed by a slight decline in growth from 2020 onwards. The CAGR over the last 5 years is 1.89%, reflecting a stabilization in the market with slower growth. The last recorded value for 2023 was 127.8 subscriptions per hundred persons.

Future forecasts suggest a continued increase albeit at a slower pace, with a 5-year forecasted CAGR of 1.11% leading to 137.78 subscriptions per hundred persons by 2028. This indicates mature market dynamics with potential saturation.

Trends to watch for:

• Integration of 5G services expanding the market scope and possibly leading to higher churn rates.
• Potential influences of regulatory changes on subscription rates.
• Increasing competition from alternative technologies such as IoT and eSIMs impacting traditional cellular subscription metrics.