The demand for palm oil in Nigeria has shown volatility over the past decade. Starting at 2.49 million metric tons in 2014, there were significant fluctuations, with notable declines in 2016 (-15.41%) and 2020 (-17.59%). However, some years experienced recovery, such as 2017 (17.3%) and 2021 (19.68%). By 2023, the actual demand stood at 2.21 million metric tons, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.63%. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years (2019-2023) is -0.46%, reflecting a modest decline.
Forecasts indicate a continued gradual decrease in demand, expecting it to reach 2.13 million metric tons by 2028. The projected CAGR from 2024 to 2028 is -0.55%, with an overall forecasted decline of 2.72% over this period.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of global market conditions, local agricultural policies, economic growth in Nigeria, sustainability initiatives, and potential shifts towards alternative oils. Understanding these factors will be crucial for anticipating future demand dynamics for palm oil in Nigeria.
