Analysis of the forecasted fossil energy consumption in rail transport in the UK between 2024 and 2028 reveals a slight downtrend, starting at 838.12 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent in 2024 and declining marginally each year to 833.64 thousand tonnes in 2028. In 2023, the actual consumption level set the precedent for this downward trajectory.
Year-on-year percentage variation is minimal and consistently negative, reflecting a gradual decrease in reliance on fossil fuels. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) should indicate a declining trend over the five-year period, consistent with advancements in energy-efficient rail technologies and increased investment in electrification.
Future trends to watch include the potential acceleration of this decline with policy shifts towards sustainable transport, the increase in rail electrification projects, and innovation in alternative energy sources within the rail industry.
