In 2023, the number of female third-grade repeaters in Germany was at 2.35 thousand. Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 show a consistent decline, beginning at 2.2 thousand and dropping to 1.64 thousand in 2028.
The year-on-year decrease starts with a 6.8% reduction between 2024 and 2025, followed by a 6.8% decrease in 2026, a 7.3% decrease in 2027, and an additional 7.3% decline in 2028. Over these forecasted five years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) indicates a decrease of approximately 5.9% per annum.
Future trends to watch:
- Impact of early education initiatives on reducing repetition rates.
- The potential effect of supportive learning environments and resources.
- Shifts in educational policy that may further drive down repetition rates.
