Forecast: Production in Life Insurance Sector in Portugal

The life insurance sector in Portugal experienced significant fluctuations from 2013 to 2023. After peaking at 930.3 million euros in 2014, the sector saw a steady decline, with notable drops in 2015 (-7.95%) and 2016 (-14.98%). Despite minor recoveries in 2018 (0.69%) and 2020 (26.46%), the trend remained negative, ultimately reaching 607.7 million euros in 2023.

The trend from 2018 to 2023 shows an overall average annual decrease (CAGR) of -2.71%. Looking ahead to the forecasted period from 2024 to 2028, the production is expected to continue its decline at a slower average annual rate of -0.68%, leading to a total reduction of -3.34% over the five years.

Future trends to watch for:

• Technological advancements and digital transformation in the insurance sector
• Potential regulatory changes affecting life insurance policies
• Shifts in consumer preferences toward alternative investment and insurance products
• Impact of economic conditions, such as inflation and interest rates, on premium affordability and policy uptake