Forecast: Share of Renewable Electricity Generation in South Africa

The share of renewable electricity generation in South Africa has seen fluctuating growth but overall steady increases from 2013 to 2023, reaching 2.8% of total electricity output in 2023. There has been a noticeable year-on-year increase, particularly in the early years, with a peak year-on-year growth of 112.33% in 2014. However, growth rates have moderated over the years, with the year-on-year variation standing at 3.81% in 2023. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years has averaged 4.33%.

Looking forward to 2024 and beyond, forecasts indicate a continued but modest rise in the share of renewable electricity generation, with a projected value of 3.28% by 2028. The forecasted five-year CAGR is 2.51%, pointing to a steady but slow growth trend. Thus, while renewable energy is expected to gradually increase its contribution to South Africa’s electricity mix, the pace of this transition might not be rapid.

Future trends to watch for include policy changes that may accelerate renewable energy adoption, advancements in renewable technology, and investment in infrastructure. Additionally, global energy market shifts and local economic factors will likely influence the pace and scale of renewable electricity generation in South Africa.