The forecast for HIV incidence in Kenya from 2024 to 2028 shows minimal fluctuations, maintaining at 1.15% for 2024 and 2025, then slightly dropping to 1.14% from 2026 to 2028 among the uninfected population aged 15-49. This represents a stable trend, with a negligible year-on-year variation over the forecasted period. As of 2023, the data indicated an incidence rate similar to the 2024 forecast at 1.15%. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years is near zero, underscoring the stability in HIV incidence rates.
Future trends to watch include potential impacts of new HIV prevention programs, changes in public health policies, and the launch of innovative treatments. Monitoring these factors could help anticipate any significant shifts in HIV incidence rates in Kenya beyond 2028.
