The forecast for Japan's fermented beverages import volume indicates a steady decline over the next five years. From a starting value in 2024 of 109.88 thousand metric tons, it is expected to decrease to 78.77 thousand metric tons by 2028. Comparing to the baseline of 2023, the year-on-year variation shows a consistent downward trend, with decreasing rates of -7.3% from 2024 to 2025, -7.7% from 2025 to 2026, -8.2% from 2026 to 2027, and -8.7% from 2027 to 2028. The five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) results in an average annual decrease in import volume.
Key trends to monitor include potential shifts in consumer preferences for local vs. imported fermented beverages, policy changes affecting imports, and the impacts of economic conditions on consumer spending habits. These factors could alter the forecast, either mitigating the decline or accelerating it.
