The crude oil extraction sector in the UK experienced significant fluctuations from 2014 to 2023. The peak turnover was in 2018 at £27.25 billion, while the lowest was in 2016 at £17.31 billion. The sector’s turnover stood at £23.56 billion in 2023. Key variations include a steep decline of 21.83% in 2016, a notable recovery with a 31.83% increase in 2017, and a further 19.4% rise in 2018. However, after 2019, there have been oscillations with a notable drop of 15.3% in 2020 followed by moderate recovery periods and minor annual declines.
In the forecast for 2024 to 2028, the turnover is expected to consistently decrease slightly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.38%, indicating a relatively stable yet declining trend. By 2028, the forecasted turnover is £22.91 billion, showing a 1.9% overall reduction from the 2023 levels.
Future trends to watch for:
- Impact of geopolitical developments on crude oil supply and prices.
- Technological advancements and their effect on extraction efficiency and costs.
- Environmental regulations and the shift towards renewable energy sources.
- Market dynamics influenced by global oil demand fluctuations.