Forecast: Share of Scientific Publications Among the World's 10% Top-Cited Publications in Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine in the US

The forecasted share of global top-cited publications in Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine in the US shows a steady, slight decline from 2024 through 2028. In 2023, the share stood at 13.35%, indicating minimal year-on-year decreases. This consistent downward trend reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.15% over the next five years, suggesting a modest, yet persistent drop in relative impact or global citation influence.

Future trends to watch for:

  • Potential shifts in research funding and priorities that could affect publication impact.
  • The emergence of new research centers of excellence or collaborations that may boost citation shares.
  • Changes in the field's dynamics and publication practices, possibly influenced by technological advances or policy changes.

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