The registration of commercial vehicles in Kenya has seen a fluctuating trend from 2013 to 2023. The period between 2013 and 2015 experienced growth, peaking in 2015, followed by a steep decline in 2016. This downward trend continued sharply in 2017, stabilizing slightly from 2018 to 2023 but remaining significantly below the 2015 peak. In 2023, the registrations stood at approximately 2.77 thousand units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.45% and a 5-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -9.47% from 2018 to 2023.
Looking ahead, the forecasted data indicates a continued decline in commercial vehicle registrations from 2024 to 2028, with a projected 5-year CAGR of -8.69% and an overall decline of 36.53% by 2028. Future trends to watch for include potential economic recovery effects, government policies, infrastructural developments, and shifts towards sustainable and electric vehicles, which could impact vehicle registration patterns.
