The total number of scientific publications in drug discovery in China has seen a consistent increase from 1.41 thousand in 2013 to 3.0 thousand in 2023. The year-on-year variation has fluctuated significantly, with the largest spikes observed in 2014 (17.29%) and 2018 (16.67%). Over the last two years, the growth has stabilized with modest increases of 4.85% and 5.21% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years has been relatively strong at 7.83%.
The forecast indicates a continued upward trend, reaching 3.72 thousand publications by 2028, although at a slower CAGR of 3.38%, reflecting a maturing field. Future trends to watch for include:
- Increased collaboration between academia and the pharmaceutical industry, potentially accelerating innovation.
- Advancements in AI and machine learning that could reshape drug discovery methodologies.
- Policy changes and government funding that could either bolster or hinder research output.
