In 2023, the Net Operating Surplus in the US Retail Trade (excluding Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles) stood at $134.5 billion. From 2024 to 2028, we forecast steady growth, with the surplus rising from $136.11 billion in 2024 to $143.79 billion in 2028. The year-on-year growth averages around 1-1.5%, while the five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is about 1.35%. This indicates a positive, albeit moderate, upward trend for the retail sector's profitability in the upcoming years.

Future trends to watch for:

Changing consumer behavior and increased digitization could drive efficiency.
Economic fluctuations and inflation may impact profit margins.
Technological advancements such as AI and supply chain innovations may influence the retail landscape.