In 2023, rice production in Japan was recorded at 7.88 million metric tons. The forecast for 2024 predicts a slight decrease to 7.82 million metric tons, continuing to decline steadily to 7.59 million metric tons by 2028. This pattern reflects an average annual decrease of approximately 0.7% over the five years.
Year-on-year, the anticipated reduction is consistently around 0.77% from 2024 to 2025, then slightly moderating to approximately 0.78% by 2028. Such variations depict a gradual but persistent downtrend over this forecast period.
Future trends to watch for include rising challenges from urbanization, aging farmer demographics, and climate change impacts, all of which may exacerbate the decline in Japan's rice production capacity.
