Forecast: Turnover in Non-Life Insurance Sector in Portugal

From 2013 to 2023, the turnover in the Non-Life Insurance Sector in Portugal exhibited significant fluctuations. Post-2013, the sector saw an upward trend, peaking in 2018 at €9.18 billion. However, starting in 2019, it entered a period of decline, reaching €6.35 billion in 2023. The sector's annual growth rate saw substantial volatility, with notable increases in 2016 (30.42%) and 2017 (29.03%), followed by consistent declines from 2019 onwards. The average annual decline over the last five years (2018-2023) was approximately -7.09%.

Looking forward, the forecast predicts a continuing downward trend, with an estimated 28.49% total decrease from 2024 to 2028, averaging an annual decline of -6.49%. Factors such as economic conditions, regulatory changes, and evolving market dynamics will be crucial to monitor.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Impact of digital transformation and InsurTech on the sector.
• Regulatory changes affecting the insurance landscape.
• Economic conditions and their influence on policy uptake and claims.
• Changes in consumer behavior and demand for non-life insurance products.
• Climate change and its impact on risk assessment and insurance claims.