The forecasted share of US scientific publications in immunology and microbiology among the world's top 10% cited is predicted to steadily decline from 11.75% in 2024 to 8.58% in 2028. From 2024 to 2025, the year-on-year decrease is 6.81%, followed by a reduction to 10.16% in 2026, representing a 7.22% decline. The trend continues with a 7.78% drop to 9.37% in 2027, and another 8.44% drop to 8.58% in 2028. This data indicates a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately -7.7% over the five-year period from 2024 to 2028.
Future trends to watch include the potential impact of increasing international collaboration and funding shifts towards emerging markets. Additionally, technological advancements in bioinformatics and artificial intelligence may alter research dynamics and publication influence in this field.
