The transport services exports in South Africa exhibited notable fluctuations from 2013 to 2023, marked by a decline from 18.75 units of commercial service exports in 2013 to 12.61 in 2023. The most significant drop occurred between 2015 and 2018, seeing an overall decreasing trend with intermittent years of growth, such as in 2019 and 2020. Over the last two years, the year-on-year variations were -8.43% in 2022 and a marginal -0.56% in 2023. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years stands at -2.69%, indicating a continual downward trend.
Future projections from 2024 to 2028 suggest a minor decline, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -0.45%, indicating a potential stabilization but still slightly negative growth. The forecasted growth rate for this period is -2.24%, reflecting a modest but persistent reduction in export values.
Future trends to watch for include shifts in global trade dynamics, advancements in logistics technology, and potential policy changes impacting international transport services. The sector might also see influences from changes in major trade partners’ economic health and South Africa's infrastructural investments in logistics and transport networks.
