The arable and permanent cropland agricultural area in Indonesia has shown consistent growth over the past decade, starting from 46.0 million hectares in 2013 and reaching 54.15 million hectares in 2023. This represents a notable increase especially considering the 6.26% growth in 2016 and steady increments post-2017. The year-on-year variation has typically stayed under 2%, with a peak in 2016, suggesting periods of rapid expansion followed by stabilization. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years has been 1.09%, indicating a modest yet steady growth pattern.
Looking ahead, from 2024 onwards, the cropland area is forecasted to continue its upward trajectory, eventually reaching 57.13 million hectares by 2028. The forecasted 5-year CAGR of 0.85% and an overall growth rate of 4.32% suggest a slower but consistent growth trend.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Technological advancements in agriculture that may boost crop yield without significant land expansion.
- Government policies and environmental regulations which may impact land use and agricultural practices.
- Global trade dynamics and their effect on domestic agricultural demand.
