The registration of new buses in Turkey has experienced significant fluctuations over the past decade, evidenced by a marked decline from 18.41 thousand in 2013 to just 3.18 thousand in 2023, representing a substantial drop. Key year-on-year variations include a notable decrease of -14.49% in 2023 and past critical shifts such as -48.05% in 2014 and -40.53% in 2018. Over the last five years through to 2023, the average annual decrease (CAGR) stands at -13.42%. The future forecast suggests a troubling ongoing decline, predicting a 5-year average annual shrinkage (CAGR) of -26.47%, with the volume expected to plummet to 0.569 thousand by 2028—a striking overall fall of -78.51% in growth rate over this period.

Future trends to watch include:

Potential stabilizing factors such as economic policies or subsidies for public transportation.
Technological advancements in bus manufacturing, possibly driving a shift towards electric and eco-friendly vehicles.
Changing urbanization patterns and population dynamics influencing public transport needs.