Forecast: General Government Investment in Defence in Italy

From 2013 to 2023, Italy's general government investment in defense displayed a series of fluctuations, characterized by significant spikes and drops. The notable increase in 2016 (48.24% year-on-year) was followed by a decline in 2017 and 2018 (-5.71% and -13.21%, respectively). Since 2019, there has been a modest but steady increase with year-on-year variations mostly hovering around 1-2%, indicating stabilization in recent years. By 2023, the value stood at 13 in units of general government investment.

The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the past five years was 3.32%, reflecting moderate growth despite some volatility. Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 predict a steadier increase, with the general government investment in defense expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.25%, reaching 14.07 units by 2028.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Potential impacts of geopolitical tensions on defense spending.
• European Union directives or collaborative defense initiatives affecting national budgets.
• Economic factors influencing the Italian government's fiscal policies and priority in defense investment.