The cotton production value at the farm gate in Brazil has shown significant variation over the past decade. Between 2013 and 2023, production value fluctuated markedly, with a notable decrease in 2015 and 2016, followed by a steady recovery. By 2023, the value stood at 3.7 billion USD. The year-on-year variation indicated some volatility, such as the significant decline in 2016, and robust growth in 2017 and 2018. Over the last two years, the growth stabilized, showing a slight upward trend with a year-on-year increase of 3.31% in 2022 and 3.17% in 2023. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years was modest at 0.37%.
Looking forward, the forecast from 2024 to 2028 suggests a continued positive trend, with the production value expected to rise to 4.25 billion USD by 2028. The projected 5-year CAGR is 2.21%, indicating steady yet slow growth. This longer-term forecast suggests that while short-term fluctuations might occur, the overall trend is upward, reflecting an 11.53% cumulative growth over the forecast period.
Future trends to watch include:
- The impact of global cotton prices on domestic production values.
- Technological advancements in agriculture affecting yield efficiency.
- Climate-related factors influencing cotton farming viability.
- Government policies and subsidies that could impact production costs and revenues.
