The forecasted tax expenditure on fossil fuels in China shows an upward trend from $8.37 billion in 2024 to $9.6 billion in 2028, indicating growing government spending in this area. Compared to 2023, there is a projected year-on-year increase starting at 3.8% for 2025, with incremental rises following through 2028. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over these five years is approximately 3.5%.

Future trends to watch for include:

The impact of China’s environmental policies and potential subsidies on reducing fossil fuel reliance.
Advancements in renewable energy that may influence future tax strategies.
Economic and geopolitical factors that could affect energy prices and tax expenditure adjustments.