In 2023, the final consumption of gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion) in Italy's rail transport stood at an estimated higher figure than the forecast for 2024, indicating a significant shift in consumption patterns. The forecast shows a steady decline from 2024 through 2028. In 2024, consumption is projected at 1.22 thousand terajoules, decreasing yearly to reach 0.74402 thousand terajoules by 2028. The year-on-year variation shows a consistent reduction, with the highest annual decrease observed between 2027 and 2028. The five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) indicates a robust downward trend.

Future trends to watch for:

Enhanced energy efficiency and electrification in rail transport could further decrease reliance on gas and diesel oil.
Regulatory policies and carbon reduction targets might accelerate this downward consumption trend.
Technological innovations in alternative fuels and rail technologies could influence consumption patterns significantly after 2028.