From 2013 to 2019, the number of surgical day care places in Italy oscillated, showing minor fluctuations with a general tendency towards stability. Significant declines occurred in 2020 and 2021, instigated by the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing capacity considerably. Although there was a slight recovery in 2022, a continued decline resumed in 2023, leading to a 7.4 thousand places value.
Over the last two years, the year-on-year variation showed a -2.26% decrease in 2023 and a 2.19% increase in 2022, indicating volatility. The average annual change (CAGR) over the last 5 years (ending in 2023) was -2.39%, suggesting a clear declining trend.
- Notable long-term historical trends: - From 2013 to 2019, stability with small fluctuations. - Post-2020, substantial declines due to pandemic disruptions.
- Forecasted data from 2024 onward indicate a persistent decline, averaging an annual decrease of 1.79% CAGR over the next five years, culminating in a projected 6.61 thousand places by 2028. The forecasted five-year growth rate is a reduction of 8.63% over this period, reinforcing the downward trajectory.
Future trends to watch: - Impact of healthcare reforms and investments post-pandemic. - Potential technological advancements and their role in optimizing capacity. - Socio-economic factors influencing patient preferences for day care surgery.
