As of 2023, the percentage of Italy's population residing in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million people is the baseline for forecasting. From 2024 to 2028, the expected growth is modest but steady, with an increase from 19.55% in 2024 to 19.77% in 2028. The year-on-year growth rates are approximately 0.36%, 0.31%, 0.25%, and 0.20% for each subsequent year. This illustrates a gradual upward trend in urban population concentration. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2028 will reflect a consistent trend of urbanization.

Future trends to watch for include:

The impact of economic factors such as employment opportunities on urban migration.
Infrastructure development in growing cities that may influence population distribution.
Social shifts and policy changes that could affect urban attractiveness.