From 2024 onwards, there is a consistent year-on-year decline forecasted in the number of long-term residence permits issued to Vietnam citizens in France. The forecasted values from 2024 to 2028 show a significant decrease from 636 to 185 permits. This reflects a sharp contraction in demand or acceptance rates, suggesting either tighter immigration controls or reduced application volumes.
The year-on-year percentage decrease is notable: 2024 to 2025 by approximately 18.2%, 2025 to 2026 by 21.7%, 2026 to 2027 by 27.5%, and 2027 to 2028 by 37.3%. The average annual decrease rate, or CAGR, over this five-year period is about 27.1%.
Going forward, factors to monitor include changes in France's immigration policy, economic conditions affecting Vietnam citizens’ likelihood to relocate, and bilateral relations between France and Vietnam.
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