From 2013 to 2023, Poland experienced fluctuations in the import volumes of gas oil and diesel oil, moving from 943 thousand metric tons in 2013 to 4,580 thousand metric tons in 2023. The period saw significant year-on-year variations with peaks such as 81.47% in 2016 and declines such as -33.68% in 2013. The overall compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2013 to 2023 was marked by high volatility.
Notably, the import volume dropped steadily from 2018 to 2020 but showed slight recovery from 2021 with a modest positive trend. By 2023, the import year-on-year change was 1.97%, marking a stabilization of the import volumes compared to the stronger growth spurts observed earlier. The 5-year CAGR preceding 2023 stood at -0.97%, indicating a small reduction on average annually over this period.
Looking forward, forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 anticipate moderate growth. The imports are expected to reach 5,010 thousand metric tons by 2028, driven by a forecasted 5-year growth rate of 7.3% and an estimated 5-year CAGR of 1.42%. The predictions point to slower but steadier annual increases in import volumes, suggesting more stable demand expectations.
Future trends to watch for include geopolitical shifts affecting supply chains, changes in energy policies, and advancements in alternative energy sources, which could further influence Poland's imports of gas oil and diesel oil. Monitoring these trends will be critical for anticipating significant market changes.
