The import of iron and steel to Nigeria exhibited considerable fluctuations from 2013 to 2023, with values peaking sporadically but displaying an overall moderate decline. The highest import value was recorded in 2014, followed by a significant drop in 2016 and 2020. The most recent data from 2023 shows an import value of $546.31 million, marking a consistent downward trend over the past few years. Year-on-year variations show significant peaks and troughs, with growth rates as high as 55.41% in 2018 and steep declines such as -44.28% in 2016. Over a five-year period, the CAGR was -5.63%, highlighting a continued decrease in import values.
Future forecasts indicate a gradual decline in imports, with projected values consistently decreasing each year through 2028. The five-year forecast CAGR of -3.51% and a predicted growth rate decline of -16.36% reflect this downward trajectory.
Trends to watch for in the future include:
- Domestic production capacity enhancements which could further reduce import dependence.
- Government policies favoring local manufacturing and infrastructure development initiatives.
- Fluctuations in global steel prices and their direct impact on import costs.
- Changes in trade agreements and international economic relations influencing import dynamics.