Forecast: Oil Production in the US

The historical data from 2013 to 2023 shows a steady increase in US oil production, reaching 18.32 million barrels per day in 2023. Year-on-year variations indicate significant fluctuations, with notable growth years such as 2018 (16.59%) and declines such as in 2016 (-3.34%). Over the last five years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has moderated to 3.64%, indicating a slowdown in the rate of production increase.

Key trends in US oil production from 2013 to 2023 include:

• Significant early growth from 2013 to 2015, with CAGR peaking at 11.08%
• A setback in 2016 and 2020 with negative growth
• Recovery with consistent growth in subsequent years, though at a decelerated pace

Looking ahead, the forecast indicates a continued but slower growth trajectory with production expected to reach 20.31 million barrels per day by 2028. The forecasted 5-year CAGR is 1.54%, reflecting a more mature phase in US oil production growth.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Advancements in drilling technology and enhanced oil recovery techniques
• Geopolitical factors impacting global oil markets
• Regulatory changes and environmental policies affecting production operations