The freshwater fish production in Kenya has been on a declining trend from 2014 to 2023, with a notable drop from 183.28 thousand metric tons in 2014 to 83.18 thousand metric tons in 2023. The year-on-year variations over this period have been consistently negative, with significant drops like a -21.97% change in 2017 and a -10.36% change in 2020. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years from 2019 to 2023 stands at -5.6%.
Looking forward, the forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 indicate that the downward trend will continue, with a projected CAGR of -6.99%. By 2028, the production is expected to fall to 53.33 thousand metric tons, reflecting a total decrease of approximately 30.4% from 2023 levels.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of climate change on freshwater sources, government policies on aquaculture, and technological advancements in sustainable fish farming practices. Monitoring these factors could provide insights into potential reversals or further declines in production.