Key Market Indicators
American tobacco consumption is projected to decline significantly over the next five years. By 2028, only 7.9% of individuals aged 15 and older are expected to be daily smokers, down from the current 9.9% in 2023. This represents a year-on-year decrease of roughly 3.6 percentage points. This trend is part of a longer-term decline in smoking rates. Since 1970, the number of daily smokers in the U.S. has decreased by approximately 0.8 percentage points annually. In tandem with declining consumption, American tobacco production is also set to decrease. By 2028, production is forecasted to drop to 102,000 metric tons, down from 170,000 metric tons in 2023. This marks an average annual decline of about 8.1%. The reduction in supply has been ongoing for decades, with American tobacco production falling by an average of 6.8% per year since 1966.
