Forecast: Output of Financial Services in the UK

The output of financial services in the UK has demonstrated various fluctuations over the past decade. Observing the data between 2013 and 2023, we see a general upward trend with intermittent drops in certain years. For instance, the sector saw a significant increase of 9.14% in 2016 following an earlier drop in 2015 and demonstrated growth spikes in recent years, such as a notable 7.42% in 2022. By 2023, the value stood at 376.12 billion pounds, marking a 1.97% increase relative to the previous year. The overall height of these fluctuations has resulted in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9%.

Looking ahead, the forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 anticipates steady growth. The projections predict the sector will reach 413.05 billion pounds by 2028. Although the forecasted five-year CAGR is slightly lower at 1.53%, the overall growth rate over the period stands at 7.89%.

Future trends to watch for:

• Technological advancements in financial services, including increased digitalization and fintech innovations.
• Regulatory changes post-Brexit and their impact on financial operations and cross-border trade.
• Economic factors such as interest rate adjustments and inflation that can influence financial market stability.
• Global economic conditions and their effect on the UK’s financial services due to potential recessions or growth in foreign markets.