The re-import of pencil leads, both black and colored, to China is forecasted to show a steady increase from 2024 to 2028. In 2024, the volume is projected to be 7.35 thousand kilograms, up from the historical data of 7.1 thousand kilograms in 2023. Year-on-year growth is modest, around 3.4% from 2024 to 2028. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over this five-year period is estimated at approximately 3.3%.

Future trends to watch include:

The potential increase in domestic demand for artistic and educational supplies, influenced by shifts in educational policies and cultural trends.
Effects of global trade policies on re-importation costs and supply chain efficiencies.
Technological advancements in pencil lead materials that could alter demand dynamics.