Forecast: Total Railway Passenger Traffic in Türkiye

The railway passenger traffic in Türkiye has seen significant fluctuations over the past decade, with notable growth and declines. In 2023, the traffic stood at 15.43 billion passenger kilometers. The year 2019 marked a significant surge with a 99.06% increase, followed by a sharp decline in 2020 (-44.94%) due to likely impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. The following years demonstrated a recovery with high growth rates, particularly in 2021 (40.2%) and 2022 (104.51%). However, 2023 witnessed an 11.69% decline. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years stood at 22.65%.

Future trends to watch for include:

  • From 2024 onwards, steady increases are forecasted, culminating in 27.11 billion passenger kilometers by 2028.
  • The forecasted five-year CAGR is 8.76%, indicating sustained long-term growth.
  • Potential influences of infrastructural investments, policy changes, and shifts in passenger behavior on future traffic volumes.

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