The North American coconut oil processing industry has experienced a significant downward trend over the past decade, decreasing from 61 thousand metric tons in 2014 to 37 thousand metric tons in 2023, a decline of 39.34%. The most substantial drops occurred between 2015 and 2017, with year-on-year decreases as high as 21.31% in 2015. After a brief uptick in 2018, the decline continued steadily. The past five years showcase a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -3.84%. Forecast data indicates this downward trend will continue, with an anticipated CAGR of -2.95% from 2024 to 2028, projecting a 13.89% decline over these five years.
Future trends to watch for include potential market shifts driven by alternative oil sources, changes in consumer preferences toward sustainable products, and the impact of regulatory measures on product standards. Technological advancements in oil processing methods and increased focus on organic and fair-trade certified products could also influence future market dynamics.
