The coconut oil production in Malaysia has seen a consistent decline from 2014 to 2023, starting at 58.0 thousand metric tons in 2014 and dropping to 34.0 thousand metric tons in 2023. The year-on-year variation for 2023 was -2.86%, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years stood at -3.2%. Notably, the years 2015 and 2016 experienced sharp declines of -10.34% and -19.23% respectively, while 2017 bucked the trend with a 4.76% increase. However, the general trend resumed its downward trajectory subsequently.
Looking ahead, the forecast suggests a continual reduction in output, with a projected 5-year CAGR of -3.57%. By 2028, production is estimated to further decline to 27.1 thousand metric tons, representing an overall decrease of 16.62% from 2023. Observing these trends, stakeholders should keep an eye on:
- Impacts of climate change on coconut farming.
- Trends in global demand and oil substitutes.
- Technological advancements in agricultural practices.
- Government policies and subsidies for coconut cultivation.
