From 2013 to 2015, the value added in the tobacco products sector in Egypt saw robust growth, peaking in 2015 with a 47.6% increase. However, starting in 2016, the growth stagnated for three consecutive years, followed by a decline commencing in 2018. This downward trend persisted through 2023, where the year-on-year variation hovered around a modest decline of approximately 0.35% and a five-year CAGR of -0.36%. Notably, the projection until 2028 indicates a continued slight decline, with a forecasted CAGR of -0.29%.
For future trends, analysts should watch for regulatory changes, shifts in consumer behavior towards tobacco alternatives, and economic factors impacting consumer spending. The introduction of more stringent public health policies or significant tax increases could further accelerate the current declining trend. Additionally, the rise of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes might significantly reshape the traditional tobacco industry.
