Forecast: Number of Direct Debit Transfers in China

The volume of direct debit transfers in China has undergone significant fluctuations from 2013 to 2023, moving from 1.87 billion units in 2013 to 0.44289 billion units by 2023. A notable decline is evident post-2015, with substantial drops recorded in 2018 and each subsequent year until 2023. The year-on-year variations fluctuated considerably, with a sharp decline of 64.45% in 2018, followed by periodic increases and further declines. Recent trends show a consistent downtrend, accentuated by a CAGR of -3.95% from 2019 to 2023, indicating an average annual decrease over the last five years.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Continued decrease in direct debit transfers is expected, with forecasts predicting the volume to shrink to 0.03271 billion units by 2028.
• Long-term CAGR is projected to be -38.05% from 2024 to 2028, suggesting an accelerating rate of decline.
• Exploring the potential causes behind this decline will be crucial, such as the rise of alternative payment methods and evolving consumer preferences.