Forecast: Total (Excluding Solid Biofuels) Renewable Energy in Nigeria

The total primary energy supply of renewable energy, excluding solid biofuels, in Nigeria has witnessed fluctuations over the past decade. In 2013, the supply was at 0.32 units and remained relatively flat until 2015, when it saw a moderate rise to 0.34 units. The period from 2016 to 2017 exhibited the highest growth, peaking at 0.47 units in 2016. Since 2017, the figures gradually declined, with a minimal rise in 2020, stabilizing around 0.36 units by 2023.

Year-on-year variations show significant fluctuations, with notable increases in 2016 (37.36%) and decreases like in 2018 (-12.29%). Over the last two years, the energy supply has decreased by roughly 1.5% per annum. The five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) up to 2023 stands at -1.86%, indicating a declining trend.

Forecasts predict a continued gradual decline in the supply of renewable energy, with a five-year CAGR of -1.2% from 2024 to 2028, and an estimated reduction of 5.86% in total supply over this period.

Future trends to watch for include potential government initiatives promoting cleaner energy sources, technological advancements in renewable energy, and international environmental agreements that could influence Nigeria's renewable energy landscape.