China's fuel oil exports saw a steady upward trend from 2013 onwards, despite some fluctuations. In 2023, fuel oil exports reached 17.6 million metric tons. Notable variations included significant year-on-year increases in 2020 (41.59%) and a steady growth pattern in subsequent years, culminating in a 4.4% growth in 2023. Over the last five years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) stood at 7.42%, reflecting consistent growth.
Looking ahead, forecasts for 2024 and beyond predict continued growth, with exports expected to reach 21.2 million metric tons by 2028. The forecasted five-year CAGR is 2.95%, equating to a total growth of 15.63% over the period.
Future trends to watch include shifts in global demand, regulatory changes impacting fuel oil production and exports, and China's strategic energy decisions. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for predicting deviations from forecasted growth.
