The number of international doctoral students in the US is expected to decrease steadily from 65,050 in 2024 to 50,130 in 2028. This marks a consistent downward trend with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately -6.48% over the five-year period. In 2023, the figure stood at 68,000, and the year-over-year decline from 2023 to 2024 is about 4.34%. Each subsequent year sees a further reduction: 2025 (-5.82%), 2026 (-6.10%), 2027 (-6.45%), and 2028 (-6.83%).
Future trends to watch for include potential changes in immigration policies that could impact international student enrollment, the affordability and attractiveness of doctoral programs, and the competitiveness of educational offerings from other countries. Monitoring these factors can provide insights into whether this declining trend will continue beyond 2028.
