The volume of rail freight transport in the UK has shown a significant decreasing trend over the past decade. From 22.4 billion tonne-kilometers in 2013, the volume had declined to 15.66 billion by 2023. This represents a nearly 30% reduction over ten years. The last two years showed shrinking volumes, decreasing by 5% in 2022 and 1.3% in 2023. Over the past five years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was -1.87%.
Looking forward, the forecast indicates a continued decline, with volumes expected to reach 14.49 billion tonne-kilometers by 2028. This projected fall corresponds to a five-year CAGR of -1.24%, suggesting a steady reduction over the medium term.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Economic recovery post-pandemic and its impact on industrial output and freight demand.
- Environmental policies and their influence on shifting freight from road to rail.
- Technological advancements in rail transport efficiency and capacity.
- Global trade dynamics and their effects on import/export volumes transported by rail.