Forecast: Net Incurred Claims of Private Non-life Insurance in India

From 2013 to 2023, the net incurred claims in India's private non-life insurance sector rose from 145.62 billion INR to 295.23 billion INR, reflecting a substantial growth trajectory. The year-on-year variation has shown fluctuations, with notable increases in 2014 (22.74%) and 2017 (18.41%), but also downturns in 2018 (-1.49%) and 2020 (-1.95%). The CAGR over the past five years stands at 3.06%, which is a positive indicator albeit at a decelerated rate compared to earlier years.

Looking ahead, the sector is expected to grow to 335.89 billion INR by 2028, with a modest forecasted 5-year CAGR of 2.09%. This suggests a gradual yet steady increase in claims volumes with an overall growth rate of 10.87% over the forecast period.

Future trends to watch for:

  • Impact of regulatory changes on premium rates and claim settlements.
  • Adoption of technology in claim processing and fraud detection.
  • Market penetration in emerging sectors like cyber and health insurance.
  • Macroeconomic factors influencing insurance demand and claim rates.

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